South Sudan: Consultant - Emergency Cash Transfer Research

Deadline to apply: August 5th, 2015

Mercy Corps Terms of Reference for Research Consultancy

Effects of Inflationary Environment on Isolated Market Systems for DFID-Funded "Emergency Cash Transfer Programme" in South Sudan

Programme Summary

This research will take place in the context of a humanitarian programme funded by DFID and implemented by Mercy Corps. The Emergency Cash Transfer (ECT) Programme aims to improve the dietary status of the target populations in Nyal and Ganlyiel Payams of Panyijar County in southern Unity State. The programme uses a two-pronged market development approach: one, vulnerable households will benefit through regular unconditional cash transfers to enable the purchase of food to supplement their current diet; and two, in order to improve the quantity and range of available basic foodstuffs, cash transfers will also be given to traders who are currently operating in the market to help restock to increase food availability. The programme targets 6,400 households and 50 traders for these cash transfers over a period of 10 months for households and three months for traders. Since the attacks on Panyijar in May 2015, however, the programme is in hibernation while the market recovers. All signs point towards full market recovery, so the programme will continue with a cash-based approach.

South Sudan

On December 15, 2013, South Sudan erupted into conflict. What began as a power struggle between former Vice-President Riek Machar and President Salva Kiir quickly descended into an ethnic conflict between Dinka and Nuer communities. The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) split along ethnic lines, with the largely Nuer contingent opposition adopting the name SPLA-IO (in opposition). However, the reality is more complex that this popularly propagated 'ethnic war' narrative. There have been rising cases of intra-ethnic and inter-communal violence since the conflict began, and instances of Dinka-Dinka and Nuer-Nuer violence, as well as examples of Nuer-Dinka cooperation, have been seen. The conflict, which has incited brutal violence that spilled across the country in waves, has led to four critical humanitarian needs:

1 Conflict affected civilians: some 1.9 million people were displaced by violence in 2014 2 High rates of death, injury and disease: with the conflict plunging an already weak public health infrastructure into crisis 3 Food and livelihoods insecurity: 2.5 million people projected to be facing severe food insecurity between January and March 2015 4 Widespread malnutrition: an estimated 235,000 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition currently[1]

Active conflict and pervasive insecurity have curtailed people's freedom of movement, making it difficult for communities to pursue their traditional livelihoods, disrupting established trade and livestock herding routes, and creating barriers for people to safely access humanitarian assistance or move to more secure areas.

Of greatest concern are the high rates of food insecurity, which have been one of the most acute symptoms of the conflict. Many places throughout the country regularly experience chronic levels of food insecurity, but the ongoing violence and resultant displacement disrupted crop planting and the October-November harvest stripped many communities and households of their few assets, either as a direct result of conflict or due to depletion of household assets during the rainy season, and dramatically disrupted markets, which historically have been critical local resources that help food insecure families cope during lean seasons.

Adding to this critical situation is the progressive deterioration of the overall economy of the country. South Sudan relies on oil for 98% of its revenue[2] - the global fall in oil prices and the reduction of oil production - from 235,000 barrels a day at the end of 2013 to 160,000 barrels per day by early 2014[3] - due to conflict has seen South Sudan's revenue streams cut. This has culminated in rumors of the central bank printing massive sums of money, leading to fears of hyperinflation in an already fragile economy. The IMF estimates that South Sudan's economy may have contracted by at least 15% last year, with the South Sudanese Pound dropping to record lows, reportedly losing an estimated over 50% of its value in 2014 and 70% in March 2015[4] alone.

Purpose of Research

Since 2005, Cash Transfer Programming (CTP) has gained tremendous momentum across the humanitarian sector, becoming a standard methodology for emergency response and recovery efforts. As one practitioner commented, "The discussion is no longer about whether cash transfer programming is a legitimate intervention type, but about how best to use cash assistance".

The research will examine the Emergency Cash Transfer Programme in the context of South Sudan's current economic and political crisis. The research will look at what effects the potential hyperinflation, currency devaluation or possible complete collapse of the economy will have on the programme itself as well as on cash programming in general. Specific research questions will include:

1 Can cash programming work in this rapidly shifting economic and political context How has the Emergency Cash Transfer Programme worked thus far in the same context Is cash the appropriate response and how robust is cash programming taking into account massive shocks in the economy as well as conflict 2 How does the macro-economy of South Sudan affect the micro-economy of the traders and households in Panyijar County

The study is geared towards understanding cash programming in a rapidly changing economic context. It should lead to greater understanding for better programming for the programme team, but also is geared towards improving cash programming for other actors working in similar contexts.

Key Research Questions

The key and specific research questions are stated in this section; however, the specific questions are suggested. Further discussion will be needed to refine these questions for a more useful research study.

Key question 1: Can cash programming have the desired impact in this rapidly shifting economic context How has the Emergency Cash Transfer Programme been implemented thus far in the same context

Specific questions to address:

• How is cash programming currently being affected by local and national conditions Is the programming creating any unintended impacts or helping ameliorate the affects of rising commodity prices as a result of inflation
• What are the trigger points when current program modalities must change because of inflation as a result of macro-economic trends or inflation as result of market elasticity collapsed or reduced functionality of the market axis, or other catastrophic events
• In these scenarios, what analysis should be completed to change program modalities and what are recommended alternative approaches What design adjustments can/did the team make to the programme and what effect did these adjustments have on its implementation Is there room for further adjustment What type of early warning information is best suited to cash-based programming in this type of environment to ensure that monitoring and learning allows optimum time to adapt programme modalities
• What would the impact be on program time and cost if modalities change
• How has other cash programming worked in the same context Can CTP be designed to be flexible enough to remain relevant when the wider economic context is shifting

ECT is a large scale cash programme in an isolated market environment. Some inflation might be attributed to the programme itself. It will be important to differentiate between inflation caused by the programme versus inflation caused by the larger macro-economic environment. We should explore the compound effect of localized inflation as a result of the project with macro-level inflation. And how do we differentiate the two There will also be need to explore idiosyncratic shocks that might be unique to the Panyijar markets that might bring prices up.

Key question 2: How does the macro-economy of South Sudan affect the micro-economy of the traders and households in Panyijar County

Specific questions to address:

• How are beneficiaries (traders & households) currently being impacted by changes in the economy
• How have traders and consumers adapted in the past to market shocks, currency devaluations, and disruptions in trade flows
• If hyperinflation happens, how will the local market system likely adjust How will traders, retailers, etc. adapt to the situation How will households adapt to this
• Is there likely to be an impact on the local economy if there is a more gradual decline in economic conditions rather than a catastrophic shock What does the program need to do in terms of routine monitoring and adjustments to cash transfer amounts, procedures, or modalities to adjust to gradual declines
• In a location with blanket food distribution, what are households and traders spending their transfers on Has this changed as commodity prices have changed
• Can the market supply demand at affordable prices
• What is the impact of inflation on household/trader livelihoods and ability to access sufficient food & income
• To what extent has the program helped traders re-establish livelihoods/productive capacity To what degree did inflation effect trader ability to do so

Proposed Methodology

The research aims to understand the effects of the declining macro-economy on the programme. The following data collection and analysis methods are proposed, but should be further refined. The whole supply chain needs to be considered in addition to having a comparative case further upstream. In addition, there needs to be a clear balance between quantitative and qualitative aspects. The research should allow for reflections on reality and not contribute to assessment fatigue.

• Secondary data - Desk review, literature analysis, secondary data collection.
• Mercy Corps staff surveys & interviews - To gain a better understanding of the programme and the specific context.
• Key informant interviews - With relevant local authorities, traditional leaders, local traders, traders in main market hubs, importers, beneficiaries, INGOs, and LNGOs
• Semi structured interviews - With other implementing agencies in the location.
• Post distribution monitoring surveys - With beneficiaries and traders.
• Focus group discussions - With beneficiaries and traders.

Proposed TIMELINE

Deliverables

Number of Days

Inception Report

Desk study, literature review, refine research questions, research hypothesis, identification of target areas for field work, research timetable, workplan

10

Field work

Develop & finalise tools & methodologies, train enumerators & research team

40

Visit field sites and gather primary data

First draft

Delivery of the first draft

20

Final report

Incorporation of comments received and production of the final report

5

TOTAL

75

Reporting and Dissemination Requirements

The final research report will not exceed 30 pages not including attachments. The report should be useful and written in simple language for ease of understand and use. Use of visual aids such as graphs, pictures and illustrations is preferred. The report will be posted on the Mercy Corps website, and disseminated widely within Mercy Corps as well as the larger humanitarian aid community in South Sudan and worldwide.

The final research report shall be structured in accordance with the following guidelines:

• Cover Page, List of Acronyms
• Table of Contents: Identifies page numbers for the major content areas of the report.
• Executive Summary: Should be a clear and concise stand-alone document that gives readers the essential contents of the research report in 2 or 3 pages, previewing the main points in order to enable readers to build a mental framework for organizing and understanding the detailed information within the report. In addition, the Executive Summary helps readers determine the key findings, results and recommendations of the report.
• Methodology: The methodology section should also include a detailed description of data collection techniques used throughout the research.
• Results: Think about how best to organize this based on the research questions.
• Synthesis, Findings, Recommendations: This is space for the research team to think about the data and results, and make concrete recommendations for current or future programme improvements/changes, and generally comment on data and results. Everything presented in this section must be directly linked back to the information presented in the Results section of the report. Ideally, items discussed here will not be completely new to the reader, but rather will refer to previous discussions. Recommendations that are not directly tied to Results can be included in a Comments section for the report. Recommendations can further be distilled into a simple chart for ease of use:

#

Finding

Recommendation

Management Response

Action Proposed

Person Responsible

Deadline

• Key Findings and Recommendations Workshop: Key findings should be presented to relevant groups met during the exercise. A learning workshop is suggested as a good medium.
• Annexes: Data collection instruments in English and translation; list of stakeholder group with number and type of interactions; SOW, qualitative protocols developed and used, any data sets can be provided in electronic format, any required photos, participant profiles or other special documentation needed.

Research Management

The Programme Manager will be the main point of contact for the consultant and the final approving authority. However, the programme team consisting of the Programme Manager, the M&E Manager, the Senior Programme Officer, and the Director of Programmes will review all the documents and deliverables.

Research team qualifications and experience required

The research team or institution will have demonstrated experience in social science and economic research, in relation with the food security context and changes, and better if in an East African context. The research team should include a lead, and the team should be at least 3 members.

Team Lead Qualifications

The Research Lead will be responsible for coordinating the research as a whole, will be in charge of communication and will be responsible for the deliverables agreed upon.

• A Master's degree or higher in economics.
• At least 7-10 years of experience in conducting research for the development sector, with experience conducting research within cash transfer programming.
• Proven experience in designing and leading participatory research with an economic focus related to cash transfer programming in development interventions.
• Proven experience as a research team leader, strong team leadership skills and the ability to work as a part of a team with other experts; strong mentoring capacity in methodologies for economic research.
• Previous research experience in South Sudan desired.
• Ability to analyse and clearly articulate complex issues in an understandable fashion to decision-makers.
• Ability to produce well-written reports, in a plain and approachable text, demonstrating excellent analytical and communication skills.
• Ability to work under pressure, sometimes with extended hours, and to meet tight deadlines without compromising the quality of outputs;
• Demonstrated ability to lead and endure field research activities in remote areas and poor living conditions.

Team Member Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree, with at least 3-5 years of experience in research, or relevant and proven experience in research.
• Very good knowledge of methodologies for qualitative and quantitative research employed in a rural context.
• Experience in facilitating group discussion in rural communities.
• A good knowledge of the South Sudan context as well as the current economic context.
• Endurance face to field work in remote area and poor living conditions.
• Ability to work constructively as part of a team.

SUBMISSION OF TECHNICAL PROPOSALS

Please combine and submit as one electronic file the following documents:

1 Preliminary research framework based on the ToR, inclusive of:

1 A theoretical framework suggesting research hypotheses. 2 Suggested criteria and relevant questions for testing the research hypotheses. 3 A logframe or matrix that operationalize these questions. 4 Information on the collection methodology.

2 A timeframe for the research with clear details concerning the work to be executed, and specifying interim deliverables 3 A detailed budget 4 Research team description with composition, leadership and curriculum of all members 5 An example of research report produced by the research team or research lead (or valid hyperlinks to online published papers, reports where possible)

The deadline for submission of tenders is August 5 2015.

[1] UN OCHA, South Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan 2015, Summary, p. 2 - https://docs.unocha.org/sites/dms/SouthSudan/2014 South Sudan/HRP summary_FINAL_rev 02122014.pdf

[2] The Washington Post, With oil at stake, South Sudan's crisis matters to its customers http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/with-oil-at-stake-the-war-in-south-sudan-matters-to-its-customers/2014/01/20/dcca9432-7d25-11e3-97d3-b9925ce2c57b_story.html

[3] IMF South Sudan Report 2014

[4] Sudan Tribune, South Sudan to announce anti-economic crisis strategy http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.phparticle54264

Please follow this link to apply: http://www.aplitrak.com/?adid=c3BoaW5penkuODQ3NzIuMzgzMEBtZXJjeWNvcnBzLmFwbGl0cmFrLmNvbQ